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December = 18, 2011 9:05=20 pm

FT interview transcript: Mario Draghi

By Lionel Barber and Ralph=20 Atkins

This is an edited transcript of an interview between Mario = Draghi,=20 European Central Bank president, and Lionel Barber, Financial Times = editor, and=20 Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief.

Financial Times: We are now more than four years = into the=20 financial crisis. What lessons would you draw so far? What has gone = right and=20 what has gone wrong?

More

On this story

Draghi=20 warns on eurozone break-up

Mario Draghi tasked=E2=80=89to=E2=80=89save=E2=80=89the=E2=80=89euro

In depth Euro in = crisis

Wolfgang Munchau UK=20 will fare better in this Anglo-French spat

Inside Business Draghi=20 must tackle this halfhearted remedial work

On this topic

Global Market Overview Europe=20 debt woes feed gloomy Asia mood

Guilder=20 revived as Dutch make monkey out of euro

Eurozone=20 ready to contribute =E2=82=AC150bn to IMF

Comment Oh,=20 for an Alexander Hamilton to save Europe!

IN EU Economy

Stark=20 quit over buying of bonds by ECB

Large=20 deficit is UK=E2=80=99s weak point

Ireland=20 GDP falls 1.9% in third quarter

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Mario Draghi: We have to distinguish two stages. = First was=20 the financial crisis, with its repercussions for the real economy. I = think we=20 learnt the lessons that we need a more resilient financial system, a = system=20 where we would have less debt and more capital. There has been = substantial=20 progress in designing new regulatory policies and some progress in = implementing=20 this new design.

The second stage of the crisis is really a combination of, I would = say, a=20 challenging political phase, where euro area leaders are reshaping what = I called=20 the fiscal =E2=80=9Ccompact,=E2=80=9D and a situation where banks and = countries face serious=20 funding constraints. These challenging funding conditions are now = producing a=20 credit tightening and have certainly increased the downside risks for = the euro=20 area economy.

Action is proceeding on two fronts. At last week=E2=80=99s European = Union summit you=20 saw a first step towards fiscal rules that are not only more binding, = but=20 actually are of a different nature. They would be binding ex ante, which = is an=20 entirely new quality, and written into the primary legislations of the = member=20 states.

The second line of action is a set of meaningful, significant = decisions taken=20 by the ECB last week. We cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points. = We=20 announced two long-term refinancing operations, which for the first time = will=20 last three years. We halved the minimum reserve ratio from 2 per cent to = 1 per=20 cent. We broadened collateral eligibility rules. Finally, the ECB = governing=20 council agreed that the ECB would act as an agent for the European = Financial=20 Stability Facility (EFSF).

FT: Will the three-year refinancing operations give = banks an=20 incentive to buy =E2=80=9Cperiphery=E2=80=9D eurozone bonds?

MD: Not necessarily. Of course banks also have = capital=20 difficulties, and these measures don=E2=80=99t necessarily help them on = that side. The=20 objective is to ease the funding pressures that banks are experiencing. = They=20 will then decide what the best use of these funds is. One aspiration is = to have=20 them financing the real economy, especially small and medium sized = enterprises=20 (SMEs). What we are observing is that small and medium sized banks are = the ones=20 having the biggest funding difficulties, and they are generally the ones = who=20 provide most of the financing for the SMEs. And SMEs account for about = 70 per=20 cent of employment in the euro area=E2=80=99s corporate sector.

FT: Is this Europe=E2=80=99s version of = =E2=80=9Cquantitative easing=E2=80=9D?

MD: Each jurisdiction has not only its own rules, = but also=20 its own vocabulary. We call them non-standard measures. They are = certainly=20 unprecedented. But the reliance on the banking channel falls squarely in = our=20 mandate, which is geared towards price stability in the medium term and = bound by=20 the prohibition of monetary financing [central bank funding of = governments].

Coming back to what banks are going to do with this money: we = don=E2=80=99t know=20 exactly. The important thing was to relax the funding pressures. Banks = will=20 decide in total independence what they want to do, depending on what is = the best=20 risk / return combination for their businesses. One of the things that = they may=20 do is to buy sovereign bonds. But it is just one. And it is obviously = not at all=20 an equivalent to the ECB stepping-up bond buying.

FT: Do you expect, in the next six months, another = round of=20 bank recapitalisations and, in some cases, nationalisation?

MD: Last week, we had the results of the European = Banking=20 Authority (EBA) =E2=80=9Cstress tests=E2=80=9D exercise. But ideally, = the sequence ought to have=20 been different: We should have had the EFSF in place first. This would = have had=20 certainly a positive impact on sovereign bonds, and therefore a positive = impact=20 on the capital positions of the banks with sovereign bonds in their = balance=20 sheet. So the ideal sequencing would have been to have the = recapitalisation of=20 the banks after EFSF had been in place and had been tested.

In fact, it was done the other way round, so the capital needs = identified by=20 the EBA exercise reflect stressed bond market conditions. That may exert = pressure on banks to achieve better capital ratios by simply = deleveraging.

Deleveraging means two things; selling assets and/or reducing = lending. In the=20 present business cycle conditions, I think the second option is by far = the=20 worst. I understand regulators have recommended to their banks that they = shouldn=E2=80=99t go this way, so let=E2=80=99s hope they follow this = advice.

FT: Couldn=E2=80=99t somebody just say to the EBA, = look, just hold=20 off now, this is completely unhelpful?

MD: I think the press statement by EBA somehow hints = at=20 that, because they say that there wouldn=E2=80=99t be another exercise = next year.

To be fair to EBA, the shape of the exercise was decided at a time = when the=20 biggest economic threat seemed to be the banking system=E2=80=99s lack = of credibility.=20 People feared banks=E2=80=99 balance sheets concealed fragilities that = in the end would=20 strain the economies. So they started this exercise thinking that, being = transparent, and marking-to-market sovereign bonds, would strengthen the = credibility of the banking system and reduce risk premia. At the end, it = did not=20 work that way because of the sequencing. But I wouldn=E2=80=99t say = it=E2=80=99s EBA=E2=80=99s=20 fault.

FT: The big point here though is, at least the world = in=20 2011, has fundamentally changed, if not for the last two years, where a = position=20 where equities would be seen as more risky than government bonds is now = in=20 reverse =E2=80=A6.

MD: The big change is that assets which were = considered=20 absolutely safe are now viewed as potentially unsafe. We have to ask = what can be=20 done to restore confidence. I would say there are at least four = answers.

The first, lies with national economic policies, because this crisis = and this=20 loss of confidence started from budgets that had got completely out of=20 control.

The second answer is that we have to restore fiscal discipline in the = euro=20 area, and this is in a sense what last week=E2=80=99s EU summit started, = with the=20 redesign of the fiscal compact.

However, we are in a situation where premia for these risks overshot. = When=20 you have this high volatility =E2=80=93 like we had after Lehman = =E2=80=93 you have an increase=20 in the counterparty risk. In the worst case, you can have accidents and = even if=20 you don=E2=80=99t have accidents, you have a much reduced economic = activity because=20 people become exceedingly risk averse.

So the third answer to this is to have a firewall in place which is = fully=20 equipped and operational. And that was meant to be provided by the EFSF. =

The fourth answer is to again ask: why are we in this situation. Part = of this=20 had to do with fiscal discipline, but the other part was the lack of = growth.=20 Countries have to undergo significant structural reforms that would = revamp=20 growth.

FT: And the fifth answer is that the idea of = introducing=20 private sector involvement (PSI) in eurozone bail-outs was, in = retrospect, a=20 mistake?

MD: The ideal sequencing would have been to first = have a=20 firewall in place, then do the recapitalisation of the banks, and only=20 afterwards decide whether you need to have PSI. This would have allowed = managing=20 stressed sovereign conditions in an orderly way. This was not done. = Neither the=20 EFSF was in place, nor were banks recapitalised, before people started=20 suggesting PSI. It was like letting a bank fail without having a proper=20 mechanism for managing this failure, as it had happened with Lehman. =

Now, to be fair again, one has to address another side of this. The = lack of=20 fiscal discipline by certain countries was perceived by other countries = as a=20 breach of the trust that should underlie the euro. And so PSI was a = political=20 answer given with a view to regaining the trust of these = countries=E2=80=99 citizens.=20

FT: Coming to the fiscal pact, what is your answer = to those=20 who say there is excessive concentration on budgetary rigour at the = expense of=20 competitiveness and growth and that actually what is being created is a=20 =E2=80=9Cstagnation and austerity union=E2=80=9D?

MD: The answer is that they are right and wrong at = the same=20 time. They are right because there can=E2=80=99t be any sustainable = economy without=20 growth and competitiveness and job creation. They are wrong if they = think that=20 there is a trade-off between the two. There=E2=80=99s no trade-off = between fiscal=20 austerity, and growth and competitiveness. I would not dispute that = fiscal=20 consolidation leads to a contraction in the short run, but then you have = to ask=20 yourself: what can you do to mitigate this?

Improvement in budgetary positions should elicit some positive market = response, lower spreads and lower cost of credit. But two further = conditions=20 have to be satisfied: Implementation at national level of the structural = reforms=20 needed to enhance growth and jobs creation. And finally, it is necessary = to have=20 the right euro area design, implementing the fiscal compact, so that the = confidence is fully restored. Austerity by one single country and = nothing else=20 is not enough to regain confidence of the markets =E2=80=93 as we are = seeing today.

Consolidation must also go hand in hand with structural reforms. Each = country=20 has its own path that they should undertake. For some, the situation = would not=20 be sustainable even if they were outside the euro and were to devalue = their=20 currency. That would give only a temporary respite =E2=80=93 and higher = inflation, of=20 course.

FT: But that was part of the answer in the early = 1990s in=20 Italy =E2=80=93 it did have an exchange rate adjustment.

MD: If you take that as an example, remember there = was no=20 IMF around, there was no EFSF and gross [government bond] issuance in = 1992 was a=20 multiple of the figures that we see today. It=E2=80=99s true that Italy = moved the=20 exchange rate, but this cuts both ways. It brought a temporary respite = to the=20 economy, so that exports could grow, but it also widened sovereign bond = spreads=20 because exchange rate risk came on top of sovereign risk. Three or four = years=20 down the road Italy still had something like 600 basis point spread with = respect=20 to the German Bund. Furthermore, the effect of the devaluation would = have been=20 only temporary without the structural reforms (abolition of indexation = among=20 others) that followed.

FT: But these austerity programmes are very harsh. = Don=E2=80=99t=20 think that some countries are really in effect in a debtor=E2=80=99s = prison?

MD: Do you see any alternative?

FT: They could leave the eurozone?

MD: But as I said before, this wouldn=E2=80=99t = help. Leaving the=20 euro area, devaluing your currency, you create a big inflation, and at = the end=20 of that road, the country would have to undertake the same reforms that = were due=20 to begin with, but in a much weaker position.

FT: =E2=80=A6 But maybe it would be the best thing = for the rest of=20 the eurozone?

MD: Well, then you would have a substantial breach = of the=20 existing treaty. And when one starts with this you never know how it = ends=20 really.

FT: You said earlier that it would have been far = better if=20 the EFSF had been in place. So where are we on creating this firewall = =E2=80=93 what=20 size of bazooka are we talking about?

MD: One first observation is that the delay in = making the=20 EFSF operational has increased the resources necessary to stabilising = markets.=20 Why? Because anything that affects credibility has an immediate effect = on the=20 markets. A process that is fast, credible and robust needs less = resources.

FT: It sounds like you=E2=80=99re a bit disappointed = then with the=20 outcome of last week=E2=80=99s summit then?

MD: Actually no, because there was confirmation of previous figures = on the=20 EFSF=E2=80=99s resources =E2=80=93 and of an additional =E2=82=AC200bn = that could be provided by the=20 International Monetary Fund. What was also overlooked by many is that = the date=20 for a first assessment of the adequacy of resources has been brought = forward to=20 March 2012 =E2=80=93 in just three months=E2=80=99 time, when the = leaders ask themselves whether=20 the resources for the firewall will be adequate. In the meantime, the = ECB acting=20 as an agent will make the EFSF operational. Important was also the = commitment to=20 clearly restrict the PSI to IMF practices, which should reassure the=20 investors.

FT: When do you think the EFSF will be = operational?

MD: Our aim is to be ready to provide agency = functions in=20 January next year.

FT: But can we assume that the idea floated in = October of=20 leveraging the EFSF is not actually going to happen? And that bringing = in other=20 sovereign wealth funds, Chinese, all this was overpriced.

MD: No, I think it is premature and probably wrong = to=20 proclaim the EFSF dead. Furthermore I think that if one can show its = usefulness=20 in its present size, the argument for its enlargement would be much=20 stronger.

FT: What do you say to those who say the solution is = to have=20 a very big firewall and ultimately put the ECB behind it, because that = is the=20 only thing which will tame the markets?

MD: People have to accept that we have to and always = will=20 act in accordance with our mandate and within our legal foundations. =

FT: But if you look at the wording of the treaty, = there is=20 nothing that sets a limit on how many government bonds you buy = =E2=80=A6.

MD: We have to act within the Treaty. In general, = there must=20 be a system where the citizens will go back to trusting each other and = where=20 governments are trusted on fiscal discipline and structural reforms. =

FT: Once the firewall is in place with the EFSF, = perhaps as=20 soon as the beginning of next year, might you actually stop the SMP = (securities=20 market programme)?

MD: We have not discussed a precise scenario for the = SMP. As=20 I often said, the SMP is neither eternal nor infinite.

Let=E2=80=99s not also forget that the SMP was initiated with the = view to=20 reactivating monetary policy transmission channels. So as long as we see = that=20 these channels are seriously impaired, then the SMP is justified.

FT: Arguably, the monetary transmission channels are = more=20 impaired than ever before, if you look at interest rates in Greece or = Italy=20 compared with Germany?

MD: The cost of credit is bound to differ because = it=E2=80=99s=20 geared to some extent not on our short-term policy rate but on sovereign = spreads.

FT: Would the ECB consider putting a limit on yields = or=20 spreads, or would that violate the treaty in your view?

MD: Sovereign spreads have mostly to do with the = sovereigns=20 and with the nature of the compact between them. It is in this area that = progress is ongoing. Monetary policy cannot do everything.

FT: But if the economic situation deteriorated, = would you be=20 prepared to embark on =E2=80=9Cquantitative easing=E2=80=9D in the style = of the US Federal=20 Reserve or Bank of England, in terms of large-scale government bond = purchases to=20 support economic growth?

MD: The important thing is to restore the trust of = the=20 people =E2=80=93 citizens as well as investors =E2=80=93 in our = continent. We won=E2=80=99t achieve that=20 by destroying the credibility of the ECB. This is really, in a sense, = the=20 undertone of all our conversation today.

FT: What will be the effect of the British staying = out of=20 Europe=E2=80=99s fiscal compact, and is there in your view a risk to the = City of=20 London?

MD: The UK certainly has shown a capacity to = undertake a=20 fiscal correction of an extraordinary size. My more general reaction to = all this=20 is that it=E2=80=99s sad. I think the UK needs Europe and Europe needs = the UK. There=E2=80=99s a=20 lot that can be learnt from both sides.

FT: The UK has taken legal action against the ECB = [over the=20 location of financial market clearing houses] =E2=80=A6

MD: I can=E2=80=99t comment on that.

FT: What are you expectations for global growth next = year?

MD: You could have a significant slowdown in several = parts=20 of the world. Global growth is decelerating, and uncertainty has risen. = At the=20 same time, we have laid a lot of groundwork for a better functioning of = economic=20 union in the future and we should draw confidence from that.

Copyright = The=20 Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share using our article tools. =
Please=20 don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the = web.=20

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